Ti Flex T1517 | T.I. - I'M Flexin Ft. Big K.R.I.T [Official Video] 68 개의 가장 정확한 답변

당신은 주제를 찾고 있습니까 “ti flex t1517 – T.I. – I’m Flexin ft. BIG K.R.I.T [Official Video]“? 다음 카테고리의 웹사이트 https://ppa.charoenmotorcycles.com 에서 귀하의 모든 질문에 답변해 드립니다: ppa.charoenmotorcycles.com/blog. 바로 아래에서 답을 찾을 수 있습니다. 작성자 T.I. 이(가) 작성한 기사에는 조회수 12,355,967회 및 좋아요 63,815개 개의 좋아요가 있습니다.

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ti flex t1517 주제에 대한 동영상 보기

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ti flex t1517 주제에 대한 자세한 내용은 여기를 참조하세요.

TITANFLEX – Smarter. Tougher. Lighter.

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Source: www.titanflex-eyewear.com

Date Published: 11/13/2021

Allure Eyewear TXG 1517 Eyeglasses – coolframes.com

Unfortunately, manufacturer has discontinued this Allure Eyewear frame. But there are many new ones like it! Manufacturers frequently retire frame s, but …

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Source: www.coolframes.com

Date Published: 1/12/2022

FAN DELAY TIMER TNC-T1517-120 BLACK New In Box …

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Source: www.iranalyazh.ir

Date Published: 6/5/2021

PTA HAND TOOL

1 Flex Handle … T1517. 3/8″ DRIVE METRIC BALL NOSE HEX BIT 7 PIECE. 7 Sockets … TI. Premium sockets are made from chrome vanadium steel.

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Source: www.premiumtool.com

Date Published: 10/23/2021

Product Guide – Kenwood Telecom Corp

ti 1/2” with Vi = 40 mph … T1517 Series. Wind Ratings: V = 130 mph … Elliptical and flex cable size boots are available upon request, call to inquire.

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Source: www.kenwoodtelecom.com

Date Published: 8/13/2022

merges.txt – Hugging Face

… 21620467 a r 18902502 r e 16730496 e r 16630435 t i 15869718 an d … 5 3941 shir ley 3941 flexi ble 3941 ad er 3940 gro cery …

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Source: huggingface.co

Date Published: 9/15/2021

Drawing PID-1-DW-LR20601, Rev. 1, through Drawing PID-1 …

TI. 7557. 3/4. LR NOTE 3-. ‘FF’. ENGINE. TO HUB DRAIN. LR NOTE 2-. LR NOTE 3- … -1-FP-FLEX HOSE-1. -FLEX CONN. … FS-T1517-1.

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Source: www.nrc.gov

Date Published: 12/23/2021

Full text of “Foreign agriculture circular” – Internet Archive

Hilled Brown 2/ 1 □ I I 1 w u r- F” -“1 -aJ Ti or jytsi EC-10 1962/83 1 214 15 … a flexible import duty is imposed in addition to the standard 20 perenct …

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Source: archive.org

Date Published: 11/26/2022

Tháng Chín | 2015 | Lappro Automation Co., Ltd

HONEYWELL L4064-T-1517 NSFP L4064T1517, Hàng sẵn kho … probe is DN25 flange connection, titanium material, the host type: MC – PNAX2 – QV3temp

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Source: sparepart07stock.wordpress.com

Date Published: 12/23/2022

주제와 관련된 이미지 ti flex t1517

주제와 관련된 더 많은 사진을 참조하십시오 T.I. – I’m Flexin ft. BIG K.R.I.T [Official Video]. 댓글에서 더 많은 관련 이미지를 보거나 필요한 경우 더 많은 관련 기사를 볼 수 있습니다.

주제에 대한 기사 평가 ti flex t1517

Author: T.I.
Views: 조회수 12,355,967회
Likes: 좋아요 63,815개
Date Published: 2011. 11. 4.
Video Url link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=roY6RseK5cw

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Full text of “Foreign agriculture circular”

Full text of “Foreign agriculture circular”

Historic, archived document Do not assume content reflects current scientific knowledge, policies, or practices. A f¥3 United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service EMG- 12-85 DECEMBER 1985 Foreign Agriculture Circular Grains Export Markets for U.S. Grain and Products This month’s cover provides a profile of the trends in China’s grain imports. Chinese total imports of wheat have declined each year since the 1980/81 peak of 13.2 MMT, mostly due to increased production. U.S. wheat shipments to China dropped both in terms of volume and as a share of the market since 1980/81. China’s coarse grain imports were significant from 1978/79 through 1982/83 and were mostly from the U.S. Sharply increased corn production changed China to a net exporter of coarse grain beginning in 1983/84. For additional graphs and supporting data, see pages 12-13. CHINESE TOTAL GRAIN IMPORTS FROM U.S. AND ALL OTHER SOURCES WHEAT COARSE GRAIN MMT 14 r 12 10 8 j I I X 1 MMT 14 r 12 10 3 TO c n . o o w CO CD CD —f 1 :• • ?o CO … . ~j C3 JZ2 ^ X y X YEARS Total Imports YEARS from All Other Sources from U.S. Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board – USDA EXPORT MARKETS FOR U.S. GRAIN AND FEED COMMODITIES December 30, 1985 CONTENTS PAGE **HIGHLIGHTS** 3 ** WHEAT** Latest U.S. Export Forecast, Shipments and Sales 4 Importer Buying Activity 5 Other Countries’ Selling Activity and Competitive Practices 5 Competitive Developments in Selected Foreign Markets 7 Internal Price Policies of Foreign Countries 7 **CORN AND SORGHUM** Latest U.S. Export Forecast, Shipments and Sales 12 Importer Buying Activity 13 Other Countries’ Selling Activity and Competitive Practices 16 Competitive Developments in Selected Foreign Markets 18 **BARLEY, OATS AND RYE** Other Countries’ Selling Activity and Competitive Practices 18 **COVER STORY** Additional Graphs and Supporting Data 19-20 **RICE** Latest U.S. Export Forecast, Shipments and Sales 21 Importer Buying Activity 21 Other Developments Affecting U.S. Exports 24 U.S. Export Expansion Activities 26 TABLES AND GRAPHS U.S. Wheat Shipments, Sales and Inspections 4 Wheat Shipments by Other Major Exporting Countries 5 Wheat and Flour Importer Buying Activity 5 Major Exporter Support Prices for Wheat 7 U.S. and Competitor Wheat Prices 8, 9 U.S. Public Law 480 and GSM Credit Tables 10 U.S. Wheat Export Commitments by Class to Major Destinations…. 11 U.S. Corn and Sorghum Shipments, Sales, and Inspections 12 Corn and Sorghum Importer Buying Activity 13 U.S. Corn Shipments and Sales 14 U.S. Corn and Sorghum Shipments by Destination 14 Corn and Sorghum Shipments by Other Major Exporting Countries… 15 U.S. and Argentine Corn and Sorghum Prices 16 U.S. Barley Exports; Barley Prices 18 Weekly U.S. Rice Exports 21 Rice Importer Buying Activity 22 U.S. Rice Exports by Class and Destination 23 U.S. and Thai Rice Prices 24 Weekly Thai Rice Exports 24 Quantity and Value of U.S. Grain and Feed Commodity Exports 27 U.S. Wheat and Corn Programs 28 2 **HIGHLIGHTS** Significant developments over the past month affecting U.S. exports: — Canada has signed a long-term grain agreement with the Soviet Union for 25.0 million tons of grain between August 1986 and July 1991. — Flooding in Argentina has hurt the wheat and corn crop and reduced export availabilities of these grains. — Australian exportable supplies of feed wheat are likely to increase as a result of late rains which have reportedly damaged crop quality. — New Canadian credit terms for Nigeria will likely mean greater competition for U.S. wheat exports in that market. — Argentina has lowered wheat export taxes, possibly stimulating production and exports. — Venezuelan imports of U.S. sorghum could reach last year’s record levels as a result of a crop shortfall. — Mexican imports of U.S. corn are likely to exceed last year’s level as a result of a Mexican effort to rebuild domestic stocks. — Canada’s increase in estimated supplies of wheat and barley could mean greater competition for U.S. wheat and coarse grain exporters. — Thailand is exporting record amounts of corn to Korea, partially filling the gap left by China. — Spain is continuing to export record amounts of barley in an effort to reduce domestic stocks before accession to the European Community in January 1986. — Iraq purchases 60,000 tons of long grain U.S. rice. — Peru could be potential U.S. rice market due to a production shortfall This circular was prepared by the Grain and Feed Division, Commodity and Marketing Programs, FAS/USDA. Telephone: (202) 447-2009 **WHEAT** LATEST U.S. EXPORT FORECAST, SHIPMENTS, AND SALES Export Forecast : As of mid-December , the U.S. wheat export forecast for June-May 1985/86 remains unchanged at 27.2 million tons. Improved export prospects for Canada were offset by a reduction in the Argentine export forecast. Increasing pressure for major competing countries to ship their wheat early may mean lower U.S. prospects in the near-term, but tightening competitor supplies in the longer term may benefit U.S. wheat exports. Accumulated wheat exports for June through November 1985 are 12.2 million tons, nearly 50 percent behind last year’s level at this time. Shipments and Sales : VTheat shipments in the 4-week period ending December 12 totaled 1.8 million tons, down 8 percent from last month, while new sales of 1.0 million tons over the same period were down 38 percent from last month. Leading destinations this month included Algeria, Japan, Jordan, and Korea. Major sales were made to Algeria, Egypt, and Iraq. U.S. WHEAT SHIPMENTS AND SALES ANNUAL MONTHLY AVERAGES FOR MY 1982 – 1986 (PROU) AND MONTHLY FROM DECEMBER 1983 – DECEMBER 1985 MMT SHIPMENTS SALES ANNUAL AVERAGES MY IS JUNE/MAY MARKET I N6 YEAR MONTHLY AVERAGES US MEAT SHIPMENTS, SAi.ES, AND INSERTIONS 1/ (JUNE/KAY-HIlLION TONS) Weekly and Annual Inspection Rates Million NT EU Ugglj £ n( , in g & eceaoer 12 o,3 ly Shipients Meek Ending Deceeber 19 0.4 14.3 4 Keeks Ending 19E4/B5 1985/84 Official Estiaate for Current NY ; eo – 5.1 1.7 (Grain only! 25.6 940 S ct – l ? <-5 2.2 liphed Meekly Average 0.5 !8.i Nov. 14 2.9 2.0 Dec. 20 3.3 2.3 Cumulative for NY 24.9 13.6 Latest Su Neers Weekly Average 0.4 16.5 Monthly Sales 21 Marketing Year-To-Date " " Neellv Average 0.5 17.8 « ^eeks ErdKc 1984/85 1985/86 KeeHv Avg. Extrapolated Annually 25.2 925 Sep. 19 4.0 2.2 Oct. 17 3.3 1.9 !! : " : * 3.1 1.4 Balance of rear to Achieve Estiaate - e -- "1 1.1 2.1 laphed Weekly Average 0.5 18.4 CuiLlative for NY 31.7 15.9 1/ =".ipients and sales data froa U.S. Eiport Sales, inspections data – CD 0_ LU CO CJ O in 00 CJ LU Q DECEMBER 84 THRU DECEMBER 85 (MID-WEEK PRICES) *F0B GULF DURING WINTER MONTHS U.S. K2 HRS FOB: LAKES* tt1 CWRS 13 V2X FOB: THUNDER BAY U.S. LOAN RATE FOB: GULF US. GRAIN COMMODITY EXPORT PRICES FOB GULF EXCEPT FOB PNW FOR WHITE WHEAT AND FOB LAKES FOR HARD RED SPRING* $/T0N YEARLY AVERAGE (JUL/JUN) DEC 84-DEC 85 (MID-MONTH) *F0B GULF DURING WINTER MONTHS 8 HARD RED WINTER WHEAT EXPORT PRICES U.S. AND ARGENTINE WHITE WHEAT EXPORT PRICES U.S. AND AUSTRALIAN $/TON 160 r 150 140 130 U.S. #2 WHITE FOB:PNW AUSTRALIAN WHITE FOB U.S. LOAN RATE FOB; PNW 120 1 i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i ■si- in 00 00 c_> z UJ -c o -) m m a: >- lu -c o_ -c Lu -C 2= — i ID Q_ ZD LU I— -C CO (_J O ID 00 (_) LU O DECEMBER 84 THRU DECEMBER 85 (MID-WEEK PRICES) 9 MPL-48C FY 1986 PUBLIC LAN TITLE l/III COUNTRY AND COMMODITY ALLOCATIONS (1000 Tons Grain Equivalent; Country ifli 1 li on-Total Nheat/Flour $790 or Less Per Capita GNP Bangladesh Bolivia Egypt El Salvador Ghana Guinea Haiti Honduras Indonesia Kenya Liberia Hadagasca r Morocco Mozambique Pakistan Philippines Senegal Sierra Leone Soialia Sri Lanka Sudan Yeien Zaire Zatbia Subtotal Over $790 Per Capita GNP Costa Rica Don ni can Rep. Guateiala Jasaica Peru Tunisia Subtotal Allocated Unallocated Reserve TOTAL PROGRAM 70.0 20.0 213.0 46. C 8.0 6.0 ie.o 15.0 30.0 10.0 11.0 8.0 40.0 10.0 50.0 35.0 “5! 5 4.0 20.0 26.0 50.0 5.0 20.0 10.0 730.5 23.0 30.0 14.0 30.0 20.0 2.5 119.5 850.0 100.0 950.0 308.0 127.0 L.03B.Q 21 14B.« 95.0 82.0 127.0 63.0 253.0 25.0 153.0 14.0 34.0 1/ 193.0 358.0 1/ 92.0 37.0 3,152.0 114.0 72.0 63.0 93.0 100.0 16.0 45B.0 3,610.0 3,610.0 Rice 35.0 7.0 20.0 33.0 37.0 14.0 10.0 33.0 7.0 17.0 13.0 17.0 243.0 32.0 19.0 51.0 294.0 294.0 Feecs r ains **CCC Credit 23.0 6!.0 13.0 97.0 63.0 85.0 148.0 245.0 245.0 1/ Preliminary 2/ Wheat equivalent of flour or soie portion of wheat equiv. 0+ flour. U.S. WHEAT/FLOUR TRADE WITH SELECTED COUNTRIES UNDER CCC GUARANTEE PROGRAMS* FY 1985 Guarantees Est. Quantity Approved Shipped –* Million —1,000 Tons— FY 1986 Announced Approved —Million Dollars— Estimated Quantity Yet To Be Purchased 3/ 1,000 ton 5 Bangladesh 42.1 280.7 Brazil 272.5 1,816.7 Chile 59.5 396.7 Colombia 79.0 526.7 Ecuador 32.6 217.3 Egypt 77.6 517.3 Guatemala 16.1 107.3 Haiti 7.5 50.0 Iraq 88.5 590.0 Jasaica 4.2 28.0 Jordan 19.9 132.7 Korea 108.9 726.0 Pakistan 40. 1 267.3 Philippines 43.2 288.0 Portugal 97.0 646.7 1/ Turkey to. 1 67.3 Yeien 300.0 – 2,142.9 42.0 — 300.0 100.0 0.6 710.0 55.0 1.3 383.8 120.0 5/f/ – 725.5 7.5 – 53.6 130.0 HI – 594.6 7.5 HI – 53.6 120.0 20.9 707.9 73.0 – 521.4 40.0 4/ — 266.9 TOTAL 99B.B 6,658.7 1,145.0 22.8 7,531.6 * Includes GSM-102, GSM-5, and Blended Credit, as of NDvembpr 22, 1985. 1/ Wheat Dr feed grains 2/ Based on $140 per ton for -heat; *190 per ton for *heat flour. *’ Non-operational \l Wheat and wheat flour 10 U.S. wHEAT EXPORT CGMHI THENT3 BY CLASS TO MAJOR DESTINATIONS TOTAL EXPORTS FOR 1983/84-1984/85; COMMITMENTS TO DATE FOR 1935/86 KITH COMPARISON TO 19S4/85 (JUNE/HAY — 1,000 TONS/ Marketing Hard Ked sCtt rti i i otai Destination Year Winter Sonnq — : -i Red 8hits Duma Exports EC-iO 1983/84 3 1,218 ; if – 263 1,436 1984/85 — 713 8 — 188 914 19Bn/a5* by j Ibi / / 0 1935/86** 577 7 166 750 Other id. Europe 1983/84 795 32 411 16 49 1,303 1984/85 546 99 633 — 45 1,323 l9d4/85* oOo 51 con J7 7 7C i .Ooa 1985/86** 710 71 155 6 4 946 USSR 1983/84 4,141 — — — — 4,141 1984/85 6,339 — — — — 6,339 1984/85* b, /99 C ‘ A 7 1 1985/86** 153 153 China 1983/84 1,363 — 1,549 — — 2,917 1984/85 105 — 2,693 — — 2,798 i Odd /CKi 1 r c , 1 v J i,.’Ji \ A A 7 1985/86** — 531 — — ‘581 Japan 1983/84 1,287 1,010 — 1,126 12 3,435 1984/85 1,367 1,067 — 1,013 15 3,462 17 84/BJ* bVD / z.4 Hi l , ■iii 1985/86** 904 574 673 34 2,190 Taiwan 1983/84 245 185 — 130 — 560 1984/85 299 211 — 145 — 655 lVbt/ aj* i77 ill □ DO 1985/86** 275 202 143 — 620 Rep. of Korea 1983/84 649 lil i 1,179 — 2,051 1934/85 674 i? 1 iJi 1 , iu3 — 2,008 19b4/o5* 4 7 A 4/U 16j on \ ‘1 C7 1985/86** 379 148 3 683 1,213 Other Asia, 1983/84 2,288 1,232 253 t Til 1 , iii 21 5,021 Middle East, 1984/85 2,227 1,002 173 1.502 4,909 and Oceania 19B4/B5* i n a n 1,308 ciO 1/2 i , 169 T “7C □ 3,759 1985/86** 1,360 500 133 799 2,797 Egypt 1983/84 539 607 1,346 1984/85 30 — 429 1,205 — 1,664 1984/85* nl hbi 874 1985/36** _ 1,019 55 1,074 Niqeria 1983/84 1,278 265 88 1 ,631 1984/85 1,324 198 91 — — 1,613 4 np i /nr. i9B4/B5* fc47 ill 61 919 1985/B6** 731 35 70 836 Other Africa 1983/84 471 T / 1,876 45 844 3,243 1984/85 413 39 2,034 35 303 3,329 1964/8j* 29 1,9*3 28 c09 2,791 1985/86** 792 65 728 349 1,934 * Brazil 1983/84 2,181 66 66 ill vlJ * 1984/85 3,11! 67 67 — — 3,245 1984/83* T ” A “7 A 3,0/0 i 1 h! 3,137 1935/86** 1 ii _ _ l’_ 722 Other U. Hesis. 1983/84 1 117 1,477 514 48 296 4,558 1984/35 2,061 1,290 503 159 293 4,306 1984/ 85* 1,284 1 ,U6j ^70 139 •”17 f 2-^b c.,;.92 1985/36** 1,355 913 515 167 2,952 Total 1/ 1983/84 17,128 5,647 5,593 5,541 1,556 35,465 1984/85 18,460 4,362 6,577 5,234 1,458 36,591 1984/85* 16,561 3,693 6,274 3,764 1,233 31,525 1985/86** 7,527 3,23i 3,248 2,392 ‘ 805 17,203 MY Projection 2/ 13,336 4,218 A Tec; 1 , vw J 4,082 1,225 27,216 1/ Discrepancies due to rounding and sales to unknown destination. 2/ Projection -for 1935/36, including flour and products * Sales plus accumulates ‘exports as o+ December 20, 1984, excluding sales tor next laarketinq year, ** Sales plus accuaulated experts as o-f Deceabsr 19, 1985, excluding sales for next marketing year. Source: U.S. Export Sales Report 11 s in VP LU CD <: 8 8 8 12 ■ — < co OE X I co i u •-JT IjJ 1X1 cc: LU to «*■ cm cm c j ~jzi a 1 ! i-— cci t- — i i – < => r_ 3t LJj cn LU CC LU CO h— t era rx:: lu i tea Cc: – > cs cr- r-o u’j r*A cm ro cm •— • • –< rx c • o< co cm csi -o T-i c.r- co cm o -o -* irj c m Ki cxi co co ho r:i to Cr- r-- cm r-o cm c i cm CM — . o> ■— 1 cm to cm cm to u~j co –i r-» co -ci o =a~ cm r o m !.r.i -ci u”.i co -jo u~i r-*j -ci -. — < I—- LTS CM C2' O' CM CM oo oo Kl CM u":i -o r rn Cr- o- — • cm to **■ u~i i--.. r -. t— . r- . r-- CO oo co co CO ccj •=* Lr n --cj r- co i>– o- •.— . c 4 I- , -a- r– r-. r- r– r- r – co oo co ori co C- ct- Cr- C3– fjr- , j- tjr~ o- Or- Or- CT- ■W -t-j in tn ai LTI IjJ •+-> Ci c: m -in GO IJ.J it: ij-j on i cr.i in ex: co co ll_ IX «*■ «i I — OO U I UJ –•< C^i Ijul lu ro lU_ ll _ l i to I H~ r-- c'cl Cr ■ f-3 CO —i Qu 3E= I — ■•or LU it — i e.TZ I— 1^.1 IjU LlJ CO CC. -X ■a:; cr.: i — co ::o ••x era :.>• *- o> -o h-~ — < -o Lrn •>*■ u~j r-O O Li » « U~j ■• — ■ -. — i u~i 0> Cr- c: 0.1 Cr- Li” cm r — r- :i u-j u-j o c~ ai CM “t- cm u~> — i -^r — ii_ -i- u”:i <*■ it'j i>j o 1—t a– UO Cr- Cr- t— i CM i- >=a- irj u _ i t ••:• i -o c – 1 cm cm r< Cr~ r — O —l CM «*■ to to U"S O r-'j cm Ki cm .- 1 cm cm ro in -ci -a to to r •':> UO JTi r- l ci o> — • r-j to -.*• in r– co co m co oo oo Liri -ci r– r– r~ Cr c- cr- o CO Cr- O* — I CM to *2J- r-. r~ cri m cc> en oo Cr Cr- o- cr • Cr- Or- cj– CO CD h- LU LU O 13 **CORN AND SORGHUM** LATEST U.S. EXPORT FORECAST, SHIPMENTS, AND SALES Export Forecast : As of mid-December, the 1985/86 grain trade forecast remains virtually unchanged at 49.1 million tons. Although corn sales and shipments through mid-December were lagging behind last year’s levels, increased import demand from Mexico and Brazil and lower export prospects for Argentina may mean improved prospects for U.S. corn exports. Demand for other U.S. coarse grains, however, continues to be adversely affected by ample foreign supplies of barley, feed wheat, and non-grain feed ingredients. Shipments and Sales : Corn shipments during the 4-week period ending Decmeber 12 totaled 4.2 million tons, an 11-percent increase over the 3.8 million tons shipped out last month. Major destinations included Japan and the Soviet Union. New sales of 4.4 million tons over the same period were 2 percent over last month’s total. The largest sales were made to Japan, Mexico, Spain, and the Soviet Union. Sorghum shipments of 321,700 and sales of 278,000 tons were both 27 percent below last month’s respective totals of 441,000 and 321,000 tons. The principal destination was Japan, with Israel and Japan being the major buyers. US CORN AND SORGHUM SHIPMENTS. SALES AND INSPECTIONS 1/ (0CT06ER/5EPTEMBER–M1LL10N TONS) Monthly Shipments Weekly and Annual Inspection Rates :0RN SORGHUM CORN SORGHUM 4 Weeks ENDING 63/84 84/85 83/84 B4/85 Sep. 19 2.4 1.8 .4 .3 Week Ending Decesber 12 Week Ending Decesber IS TOTAL FOR MY 43.6 43.5 5.6 4.2 Official Estimate for Current MY (Grain only! 4 Weeks ENDING 84/85 65/86 84/85 85/86 inplied Weekly Average MT Bll MT BU 1.1 44. 5 0.04 1.7 i.l 44.6 6.04 1.4 40.8 1608 6.99 275 30.? 0.13 5.3 Oct. 13 1.7 2.3 .7 .4 Nov. 14 5.2 3.8 .7 .4 Dec. 1? 7.1 6.2 .7 .4 Caiulitm tar «Y 14.0 11.7 2.0 1.2 Monthly Sales Latest Sin Weeks Weekly Ave r age 1.3 49.3 0.07 2.8 CORN SORGHUM 4 Weer:s ENDING 33/34 84/85 33/64 84/35 Sep. 1? 3,5 2.6 .5 .3 Marketing Year-To-Bate Weekiv Average 1.0 39.9 0.10 o.9 CwnUtivt for tn 46.6 47. 3 6.8 7.2 Weekly fivg. Extrapolated Annually. .52.7 2075 5.16 203 Balance ot year to Achieve Estimate , Implied Weekly Average 0.7 28.4 0.14 5.7 4, Weeks ENDING 84/85 85/86 64/85 85/86 Oct. 17 3.6 2.6 .4 .3 Nov. 14 2.5 4.3 .7 .4 Dec. 19 2.6 5.5 .8 .3 TOTAL FOR MY 23.9 20.5 3.4 2.0 1/ Shiocents and sales data from U.S. Export Sales. Inspections data f^om Federal Grain Inspection Service. 11 Sales made since the beginning of the applicable marketing year, including sales for shipient in the next marketing year. Source: Export Sales; FGIS Source: Export Sales; FGIS 14 IMPORTER BUYING ACTIVITY RECENT CORN AND SORGHUM IMPORTER BUYING ACTIVITY REPORTED BETWEEN NOVEMBER 26, AND DECEMBER 24, 1985 Date of Quantity Price Range 2/ Delivery Purchase Buyer Origin (tons) Grade 1/ ($US per ton) Period 3/ 11/29 Mexico U.S. 360,500 YC Dec /Jan 12/4 Taiwan U.S 27,000 YC 130.08 C&F Dec Korea China 60,000 Corn 116.74-120.50 C&F Jan Korea Thailand 25,000 Corn 106.85-108.85 C&F Jan 12/5 Egypt U.S. 125,000 YC 133.75-134.47 C&F LH Dec Taiwan U.S. 27,000 YC Dec 12/6 Taiwan U.S. 21,500 YS 106 Jan 12/10 Korea U.S. 50,000 YC 112.84 Jan Korea Thailand 23,000 Corn 101.32 C&F Jan Korea Thailand 25,000 Corn 104.44 C&F Jan Korea China 15,000 Sorghum 89.88-92.25 C&F Jan-Feb 12/16 Korea Tailand 55,000 Corn Jan-Feb 12/17 Brazil U.S. 200,000 YC Dec- Feb 12/19 Taiwan U.S. 81,000 YC 114.39-114.60 Feb-Mar 12/23 Peru U.S. 50,000 YC Jan 1/ YC=#3 Yellow Corn unless otherwise stated, and YS=Yellow Sorghum If FOB unless otherwise noted. 3/ FH denotes first half; LH, last half. SOURCE: Unofficial market news reports. U.S. Market Opportunities ** y enezU el a: U.S. sorghum exports to Venezuela in 1985/86 may again reach last year’s record level due to lower than expected domestic production. The Venezuelan Ministry of Agriculture has lowered its estimate of 1985 sorghum production from 800,000 tons to 490,000 tons. As a result, imports could again reach last year’s record 1.0 million tons, all of which were purchased from the United States. As of December 19, 1985 the United States had shipped or sold Venezuela nearly 200,000 tons of sorghum. In the 5 years prior to 1984/85 Venezuelan sorghum imports averaged about 400,000 tons per year, about 85 percent from the United States. ** Mexico : Exports of U.S. corn to Mexico could be much higher than last year’s 1.5 million tons because of larger total import demand and a need to build up low domestic stocks. Mexico has traditionally been an erratic corn importer, taking from 500,000 to 4.0 million tons anuually over the past 5 years, over 95 percent from the United States, and is forecast to take 3.0 million tons from all origins in 1985/86 ( October- September ) . 15 iGCT0SEfi:’3CFTElB£8— i.COe &6i as erf as cf 1Y83/54 Cjn.–.j–c -‘ .720/64 i — – – EC – 3.677 2,268 546 :.: :.-=r a. Earse e 5.38B – -“: 5.9t? 1,452 Easier-. Earsja iJi ?2i : : : 101 658 S : : 7,765 5.660 “Zftl!!2 2 i&i • – .: SB; 13 r Ii,fl95 5,363 5.c46 ‘a.SaT: – 2,676 : i34 1,932 !.5?5 ‘.EC 5r rc-rea 3,9c-s – 37 : i Es : -. ! : : 5,352 366 57{ ?5i 233 . . 2 64 •feusc – : ; ” i .:: i : : 63B 22! : Otters 3.936 c.9?2 5.3c! 2.43- – : • : 47.350 ir r. . — ~ ~r 7-1 ,c ft =6515 -:: 45 StKar ». E-jraa 134 3a 27 Japaii . : : 2.716 ? ? tlb «,5iB Israel :-. ;”- 327 .”: 3.260 2,7-5* i 371 .: •43 I.: 155 Si Otters ft] 5S2 4o? lei fatal 6.226 b~996~ – •’■’■SO if Accssilated saipngflts and sales, esc-iaiiif sals; fer neit Sssree: J. 3. 1 :i-5i. : ; J”: j.E. Esaart E=_== Resort. U.S. CORN SHIPMENTS AND SALES ANNUAL MONTHLY AVERAGES FOR FY 1982 – 1986 (PROU) AND MONTHLY FROM DECEMBER 1983 – DECEMBER 1985 SHIPMENTS SALES .x. x. x. x. u. u. u. U. k ANNUAL AVERAGES MONTHLY AVERAGES 16 Other Exporting Countries’ Selling Activity and Competitive Developments ** Canada : Exports of U.S. wheat, corn, and barley in 1985/86 could encounter stronger competition from Canada because of larger- than-expected supplies of Canadian wheat and barley. The 1985/86 Canadian export estimates for wheat and barley were raised by 1.0 and .5 million tons respectively as a result of late-season adjustments in the supply estimate by the Canadian Government. Canada is now forecast to export 17.5 million tons of wheat (including large quantities of feed wheat) , and 4.5 million tons of barley, as compared to 19.4 million and 2.5 million tons, respectively in 1984/85. ** Argentina ; Recent flooding in Argentina has reportedly destroyed early corn plantings and is expected to result in a shift to sorghum and oilseeds. Consequently, the Argentine corn export forecast for 1985/86 (October-September) was lowered 400,000 tons to 9.0 million tons, while the sorghum export estimate was increased 500,000 tons to 2.8 million tons. In recent years Argentine farmers have shifted from sorghum to more profitable crops, including corn. Argentine exports of corn and sorghum in 1984/85 were 7.0 million and 3.4 million tons, respectively. CORN AND SQRSHON SHIPMENTS BY MAJOR EXPORTING COUNTRIES RECENT MONTHS AND SEASON TOTALS FOR 1984/85-1985/86 (OCTOBER/SEPTEHBER— MILLION TONS) SORSHOH CORN Argentina Argentina Thailand TOTAL 4 Weeks Ending Sep. 19 1/ S3/S4 S4/85 B3/S4 S4/35 83/84 84/85 83/84 84/85 .2 .1 .3 .2 .4 .2 .9 .5 TOTAL FOR SEA8C* 2/ 4.3 3.4 5.9 7.1 3.0 2.9 13.7 13.4 4 Weeks Ending 1/ 84/S5 85/86 84/65 85/S6 84/85 85/86 83/84 84/85 Oct. 17 Nov. 20 Dec. 20 ■- . i ft .1 .1 .1 • * .3 .2 .1 .1 .1 .1 .4 .3 . j .3 .4 .3 .9 .6 .4 .5 .6 .5 Cumulative . Since October 1 TOTAL FOR SEASON 2/ .3 3.4 2.8 .5 .4 7.1 9.0 1.2 .7 2.9 3.6 2.0 1.4 13.4 15.4 N/A = Not Available 1/ Or nearest date thereto. 2/ Projection for 1984/85. t Less than 100,000 tons. 17 SORGHUM EXPORT PRICES U.S. AND ARGENTINE $/TON 130 US K2 YELLOW FOB: GULF AR6ENTINE FOB U.S. LOAN RATE FOB: GULF I l l I I l I I l l l l I I l I I l I l l l l i i I ) I I I l l i l l I i l l I l I l I I l I l t l l I I l “3- CO O UJ Q in m 00 UJ u_ (Y. 0_ >- ZD cd zd UJ CO O in CO u UJ o DECEMBER 84 THRU DECEMBER 85 (MID-WEEK PRICES) CORN EXPORT PRICES U.S. AND ARGENTINE $/T0N 150 r 140 – 130 120 110 100 90 80 i i i i i i i i i i l i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i.i CO cj UJ a in CO CD UJ on •< x: a. -c >– CD ZD Q_ LU CO CJ o > o in CO cj UJ Q DECEMBER 84 THRU DECEMBER 85 (MID-WEEK PRICES) US #2 YELLOW FOB: GULF ARGENTINE FOB U.S. LOAN RATE FOB: GULF 18 OTHER DEVELOPMENTS AFFECTING U.S. EXPORTS Competitive Developments in Selected Foreign Markets ** Kenya : An expected record corn crop could give Kenya an exportable corn surplus of over 200,000 tons in 1985/86 (October-September) as opposed to last year when a drought-affected harvest led to corn imports of 500,000 tons. Limited storage capacity would put pressure on the Government of Kenya to export most of its surplus production if the crop turns out to be as large as expected. Though Kenya has historically been an erratic trader of small quantities of corn, it is usually an importer, taking an average of 300,000 tons of corn in each of the last 6 years. ** Thailand : U.S. corn exporters are facing strong competition in the Korean corn market for the second year in a row. Thai corn sales to Korea have already reached over 400,000 tons in just the first quarter of 1985/86 (October/September) , compared to shipments of 50,000 tons for all of 1984/85. Thailand has record exportable corn supplies and has apparently targeted Korea as a market for additional corn, particularly in light of lower Chinese exportable supplies. U.S. corn had been expected to regain most of the 1.5 million tons lost to China in 1984/85, since before last year the United States 1 had supplied virtually all of Korea’s 3-4 million-ton annual import needs. **BARLEY, OATS, AND RYE** U.S. Exports June/May — 1,000 Tons Grain 1983/84 1984/85 1/ 1985/86 2/ Barley 1,991 1,676 1,306 Oats 39 15 30 Rye 25 10 25 1/ Estimated 2/ Forecast Other Countries’ Selling Activity and Competitive Practices **Spain: There will likely be increased competition in the world barley market as a result of subsidized Spanish exports. Despite reports of stronger domestic demand which could have led to a temporary curtailment of barley exports, Spain has continued its aggressive export program by recently contracting to export 500,000 tons, bringing total commitments to a record 1.4 million tons so far in the 1985/86 local marketing year (July-June) . Spain is reportedly attempting to reduce its stocks before its accession to the European Community in 1985, and still has stocks of about 500,000 tons which might yet be exported. Most of these exports are destined for Saudi Arabia and other Middle East markets. 19 U.S. FEED BARLEY PRICES INTERIOR AND EXPORT POSITIONS U.S. BARLE* EXPORTS B? DESTIHATI3M i>s£/SH?-l,»0O TONS'” 53 5: 5:ij.::s: ~.zti:’.~i: Total as Destination 1982/83 Exports 12/19/84 1/ 12/19 360 105 226 441 353 354 i tailerr- Eu^oce 126 60 146 223 259 282 100 JsSeft li? 372 314 314 125 Others 317 509 514 KG .:: TOTAL •=■30 2.v31 1.545 l 9 jl3 391 a AccuKlaied siiipients and sales excluding sales for next sar7&1/ uJ 41 — i 4 C . T w 1 i DuJ DC D 0 2 7 Republic of” Korea 1982/B3 — — * 2i3 213 1983/84 — — * 112 112 i 7 D T : WW — i i ww.’ GG — — Other Asia k Oceania 1902/83 2 129 — 131 1983/34 3 — 140 143 i 7 wT< Cw 3 -- wO 7 7 i V L. tPP C ,/pK i 7 0 J; OO i -- t i Ji. i J / Nigeria 19B2/83 159 -- 159 1983/84 63 -- 63 1QS£ ; PS 17 0") OJ * — ; gpq ;oi 1 7 00/ 00 0 -- Other Africa 1982/83 148 110 153 4 415 1983/64 95 150 136 381 1 7 oh.' a j 116 65 0 i i *t ' V 1 7 Cw.' 00 59 28 I V Western Hemisphere 1982/83 137 23 86 38 284 1983/84 156 24 109 14 303 1984/85 137 48 13 19 217 1985/86 66 36 4 13 118 Total 3/ 1982/83 1,148 400 392 259 2,199 1983/84 900 401 408 338 2,047 1984/35 985 "SO 422 190 1,986 1985/86 543 169 69 175 '956 * Less than 500 tons. 1/ Includes short ? aedi urn, and rised. 2/ Data not converted to a silled equivalency, and includes rough rice. 3/ Discrepancies due to rounding and changes to unknown destinations. Source: U.S. Export Sales Report 23 OTHER DEVELOPMENTS AFFECTING U.S. EXPORTS Thailand's Board of Trade has discontinued the weekly posted prices, suggesting that the prices may cause confusion regarding the new Paddy Support Scheme. Actual FOB prices for Thai 100 percent B and parboiled 5 percent fell to $200 and $173 , respectively, in quiet trading. Last year at this time, 100 percent B was selling at about the same price, while parboiled 5 percent was higher at $190 per ton. On the Rotterdam market, U.S. #2/4 percent long grain has fallen to $450 per ton C&F, in very light trading activity, while Thai 100 percent B fell back to $250 per ton C&F. ** Thailand : Thai exports dropped by more than 35 percent during the past month to 183,403 tons, following a slowdown in new sales during recent weeks as Thai exporters awaited further developments regarding the Paddy Support Scheme. Calendar year exports through December 11 totaled 3.85 million tons, compared to 4.25 million tons for the same period last year . Weekly Thai Rice Exports (Metric Tons) Week Ending Actual 4 -Week Moving Avg. Nov 16 75,841 71,082 Nov 23 47,867 68,201 Nov 30 31,037 60,582 Dec 7 28,658 45,851 RICE PRICES US AND THAI (C&F ROTTERDAM) AND US FARM S/TON 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 i i ] i i i i i i i l i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L. * * ^ ^ a ^. Ln ■ SO ^ T- >- QD US 12, 4X BROKEN THAI 100X, GRADE B US FARM6ATE, ROUGH NOV 83 TO NOV 85 MID-MONTH MID-*KK °* 1 & S 24 Apparent _ export commitments for CY 1985 as of December 11 are estimated at 4.18 million tons (as is basis), compared with 4.61 million tons registered by December 4 of last year. The new Paddy Support Scheme went into effect on December 1, guaranteeing a paddy_ price at the mill of 3000 Baht (about $115 per ton) for 5% broken paddy rice. The Thai Government hopes to give farmers some relief from the low paddy prices which have resulted from overly competitive export pricing by Thai exporters. However, the scheme does seem to have at least one loophole in that the guaranteed price applies only at the mill; purchases by paddy merchants or middlemen operating at the farm level apparently are not covered. it seems too early to draw any definite inferences about the effect on export prices the new scheme will have, as it will be some time before any new crop rice reaches export position. For the time being, sales are slow as exporters wait for new price levels to develop. ** Burma : The exports of the Myanma Export Import Corporation (MEIC) are now expected to total only 420,000 tons in CY 1985, and 500,000 tons in CY 1986. Recent sales by MEIC include 10,000 tons of 5 percent brokens at $180 and 10,000 tons of 10 percent at $173 to Brazil for November /December shipment. The MEIC is optimistic about improving the quality of rice for export in the coming year. Construction of several new mills has been completed, with more due to come on line in the next few years. MEIC hopes to compete in the high quality rice markets with a new “100 percent unbroken” rice and larger supplies of 5 and 10 percent broken rice. Currently, Burma’s exports consist primarily of 35 percent broken rice. It remains to be seen if MEIC can find enough high quality paddy needed to produce significant quantities of rice at these higher grades. ** Pakistan : The Rice Export Corporation of Pakistan (RECP) exported 127,775 tons of rice during October, bringing total exports in 1985 to 688,905 tons. This amount compares with 905,000 tons exported during the same period a year ago. Major destinations included Brazil and Saudi Arabia (Basmati rice) . Though sales of IRRI and Sind varieties have lagged this year, the RECP is expected to market all of the Basmati procured last year. The 1985/86 total rice crop is now estimated at 3.2 million tons, compared to 3.5 million tons for the 1984/85 crop. This fall in production will likely affect procurement, and RECP may be able to obtain only 1 million tons for export. However, about 200,000 tons will be carried over from the 1984/85 crop which should provide for more than adequate export supplies. RECP is not expecting any difficulty in finding markets for the expected 200,000 to 300,000 tons of Basmati procured for export. ** Italy : The National Rice Authority (NRA) has estimated the 1985/86 crop at a record 1.13 million tons. This compares with a 1984/85 crop of 1.01 million tons. The production increase is attributed to good weather conditions and the continuing trend of production increase brought about by the rationalization of the rice sector begun in 1982. Under that program, harvested area has increased by 5 percent, while the number of producers has declined from 11,000 to 9,000. The NRA also stated that sales in the period from August through November totaled 360,000 tons. Italy is expected to export 480,000 tons of rice in the 1985/86 (Aug/July) marketing year, and 380,000 tons in CY 1985. 25 ** China : Rice exports totaled 460,000 tons in the first half of 1985, according to offical customs statistics of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) . That puts exports ahead of the 1984 pace of 340,000 tons for the same period. The PRC exported 1.17 million tons in CY 1984, but is expected to export 1 million tons in CY 1985. Recent sales include a reported 35,000 tons of rice to Brazil. ** India : India currently has about 7.5 million tons of rice stocks, according to officials of the Food Corporation of India (FCI) . With an adequate harvest expected from the 1985/86 crop, no imports are planned for CY 1986. The 1985/86 Basmati crop is expected to be much better than last year, possibly in excess of 300,000 tons. Traders in India are currently allowed to export only Basmati rice, but some traders reportedly are pressing the Government of India to lift the ban on coarse rice exports as well. ** South Korea : The Ministry of Agriculture has announced a rice production target for the 1986/87 (Nov/Oct) crop year of 5.47 million tons, compared to the 1985/86 harvest of 5.68 million tons of rice. The Ministry estimates that South Korea currently has a stockpile of rice exceeding 1.5 million tons, and has stated that no rice imports will be required in CY 1986. U.S. Market Opportunity ** Peru : Peru may be in the market for U.S. rice due to a shortfall in the 1985 harvest, and a potentially poor 1986 harvest. The Agricultural Attache estimates that 150,000 tons of imports will be required during the April/ June period next year to cover the shortfall from the 1985 crop. Meanwhile, a lack of irrigation water has delayed planting of the 1986 crop, which is normally planted by the end of December to avoid the cooler weather later in the growing season. A reduction both in area and yield is forecast for the 1986 crop, which could fall below the disastrous 1983 production of 430,000 tons (milled basis) . With production that low, Peru could require an additional 200,000 tons of imports before the next rice harvest in July/August 1987. U.S. EXPORT EXPANSION ACTIVITIES ** GSM-102 : Credit Guarantees of $165.0 million were announced for Iraq in early November. Credit lines for other elgible countries remain at allocated levels: Jamaica ($10 million), and Portugal ($19. 0 million) . The previously announced credit line of $10.0 million for rice for Mexico has been shifted to vegetable oils. ** PL-480 : During the past month a new agreement was signed with Bangladesh for $10.0 million. 26 QUANTITY AND VALUE GF U.S SRAIN AND FEED CGHHOBITY EXPORTS IN FISCAL YEAR 1985 AND OHPARISON WITH PRECEEDINS YEAR CUMULATIVE ACTUAL PROJECTED OCTOBER OCT THRU SEP EXPORTS EXPORTS FY 85 FY 86 FY 85 FY 86 FY 85 FY 86 sHEAT (grain only) Quantity (1000 tons) 3737 2331 3737 2331 28524 2800 Value Per Ton (dollars) 150 * 150 133 149 139 Value (in Billion dollars! 561 7 i A ■SIV 561 310 4263 3892 CORN (grain only) Quantity (1000 tons) 3913 3913 3173 46276 40850 value Per Ton (dollars) 132 106 132 106 125 119 Value (in si 1 1 i on dollars) 517 517 337 J! 1 I 4b 6 i SQRbHUH (gram only) Quantity (1000 tons) 921 600 921 600 7549 6985 Value Per Ton (dollars) 115 88 115 88 115 1 nO XV/ Value (in siilion dollars) 106 JO 106 53 868 761 BARLEY, OATS, AND RYE (gram only) Quantity (1000 tons) 193 Value Per Ton (dollars) 119 Value (in Million dollars) 23 88 53 193 119 23 88 ILL BOO U V V 112 761 TOTAL COARSE BRAINS (grain only) Quantity (1000 tons) Value Per Ton (dollars) Value (in million dollars) 5027 129 646 ;832 103 5027 129 646 3832 103 396 55027 122 6786 48363 118 5733 RICE (grain only) Quantity (1000 tons) 159 193 159 193 1908 1800 Value Per Tun (dollars) 415 342 415 342 7Ci 350 Value (in siilion dollars! 66 66 66 66 676 630 PULSES Quantity (1000 tons) Tfi 66 39 66 425 425 Value Per Ton (dollars) J 0- 439 487 439 461 47i Value (in si II ion dollars) i 7 13 12 13 196 200 FLOUR AND OTHER SRAIN PRODUCTS Quantity (1000 tons) 196 153 196 153 2470 3111 Value Per Ton (dollars) 242 235 242 224 211 Value (in siilion dollars) 46 37 46 37 .554 656 FORAGE, HAY, HIKED FEED AND SRAIN BYPRODUCTS Quantity (1000 tons) 381 640 381 ; A A 6395 6400 Value Per Ten (dollars) 162 142 162 142 151 152 Value (in saillinn dollars! 62 91 62 91 964 975 TOTAL VOLUME (in thousand tons) 9539 7215 9539 in i c f tin 94760 88660 TOTAL VALUE (in siilion dollars) 1400 929 1400 !JT’Q 13439 12086 SOURCE; US Census 27 U.S. WHEAT PROGRAMS 1983 Program 1984 Program 1985 Program Equivalent: Equivalent: Equivalent: Export : Farm Export : Farm Export : Farm Price 1/: Price Price 1/: Price Price 1/: Price ($/Ton) : ($/Bu.) ($/Ton) : ($/Bu.) ($/Ton) : ($/Bu.) Trigger Release Price $200 • -$4.45 $200 $4.45 • Target Price • $195 • -$4.30 $198 $4.38 • $198 $4.38 Loan (Reserve) • $171 • -$3.65 $158 $3.30 National Loan • $171— • -$3.65 $158 $3.30 $158 $3.30 • Season Average • • • • • • Producer Price $166 -$3.53 $161 $3.38 $147-158 $3.00-3.20 • Farm Price • $151 $3.12 2/ • Paid Diversion $136 -$2.70 $136 $2.70 • $136 $2.70 1/ Estimated equivalent, adjusted from $/Bu. at the farm level by including transportation and handling allowances of $1.00 per bushel. 2/ ASCS 5-day moving average as of December 11, 1985 U.S. CORN PROGRAMS 1983 Program 1984 Program 1985 Program Equivalent: Equivalent: Equivalent: Export : Farm Export : Farm Export : Farm Price 1/: ($/Ton) : Price ($/Bu.) Price 1/: ($/Ton) : Price ($/Bu.) Price 1/: Price ($/Ton) : ($/Bu.) Trigger Release Price $159 • -$3.25 $159 • -$3.25 < « * ... i • Target Price • $144 • -$2.86 • $151 • -$3.03 $151 — • -$3.03 Loan (Reserve) • $136 • -$2.65 • $132 • -$2.55 National Loan • $136 -$2.65 • $132 • -$2.55 $132 — -$2.55 > Season Average Producer Price • • • $159 -$3.25 • • • $136 • -$2.65 i 4 « $124-132 — • • • -$2.35-2.55 Farm Price • * • • $128 : : $2.25 Paid Diversion $91 -$1.50 • • 1/ Estimated equivalent, adjusted from $/Bu. at the farm level by including transportation and handling allowances of $.80 per bushel. 2/ ASCS 5-day moving average as of December 12, 1985 28 Foreign Agriculture Foreign Agriculture Do you need information about • Overseas markets and buy- ing trends? • New competitors and products? • Trade policy developments? If y° u use agricultural facts and figures in your business, you need Foreign Agriculture. Then Foreign Agriculture — USDA’s fact-filled monthly agricultural trade magazine — is for you. 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Made Pay a ble to Forsio w AorieutCureJ Service. BBBBBWB^BJ ^B W BBBaB^^Bf Mf ^^^^V ^^^TBF^ B^B^BWBi^BW ^BW ^B^^P^ W w^^^w* or Rnn or P.O. Bob Number County Zip Coda FAS-829 (ftov. §44) ft-U.S. Government Printing Office : 1986 -490-918/40061 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20250 OFFICIAL BUSINESS PENALTY FOR PRIVATE USE, $300 FIRST-CLASS MAIL POSTAGE & FEES PAID USDA-FAS WASHINGTON, D.C. PERMIT No. G-262 If your address should be changed PRINT OR TYPE the new address, including ZIP CODE and return the whole sheet and/or envelope to: FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL SERVICE, Room 4644 So. U.S. Department of Agriculture Washington, D.C 20250 r §| is>~°< Foreign Agriculture Circular Agriculture Foreign Agricultural . Agricultural ■ Ur, Service (j T3 9 11 S EMG " x i;f 1Q «, Export Markets for U.S. Grain and Products NOVEMBER 1985 r This month's cover graph highlights the continuing long-term difference between U.S. and EC grain policies, especially as related to trade. In spite of recent setbacks in world demand, the record shows a sustained growth in EC market share of world trade and a closely corresponding decline in U.S. export market share. This apparent cause-effect relationship is particularly important when viewed against the fact that the Community uses export subsidies which are at times as high as $60-70 per ton and has not acted directly to curtail surplus production, whereas the United States has sought to avoid export subsidies and provides income and loan rate protection only to producers wno cut back production. WHEAT TRADE: CHANGING PROPORTIONS ACCOUNTED FOR BY EC AND MAJOR EXPORTERS (1973/74 - 1985/86 AS CURRENTLY FORECAST) •1 (Jli - *- 1 23 Percent 1/ 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 - -10 Lt 3 CAN/AUST/ARG TOTAL U.S. J L ^ ,**ri 6 vtff1 n* 1/ PROPORTION OP THE TOTAL EXPORTS BY THE U.S.. CANADA. AUSTRALIA. ARGENTINA. AND NET EXPORTS BY THE EC. 0f+ v *»<* For supporting data, see page 11. Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board - USOA EXPORT MARKETS FOR U.S. GRAIN AND FEED COMMODITIES November 29, 1985 CONTENTS PAGE **HIGHLIGHTS** 3 **WHEAT** Latest U.S. Export Forecast, Shipments and Sales 4 Importer Buying Activity 5 Other Countries' Selling Activity and Competitive Practices 5 Competitive Developments in Selected Foreign Markets 7 Internal Price Policies of Foreign Countries 9 **COVER STORY** Additional Data 11 **CORN AND SORGHUM** Latest U.S. Export Forecast, Shipments and Sales 15 Importer Buying Activity 16 Other Countries' Selling Activity and Competitive Practices 18 Competitive Developments in Selected Foreign Markets 20 **BARLEY, OATS AND RYE** Other Countries' Selling Activity and Competitive Practices 22 **RICE** Latest U.S. Export Forecast, Shipments and Sales 23 Importer Buying Activity 24 Other Developments Affecting U.S. Exports 24 U.S. Export Expansion Activities 27 TABLES AND GRAPHS U.S. Wheat Shipments, Sales and Inspections 4 U.S. Wheat Shipments and Sales 4 Wheat and Flour Importer Buying Activity 5 Wheat Shipments by Other Major Exporting Countries 5 European Community Wheat and Flour Export Licenses 6 Major Exporter Support Prices for Wheat 9 U.S. and Competitor Wheat Prices 10,12 GSM Credit Table 11 PL-480 Title I/III Allocations 13 U.S. Wheat Export Commitments by Class.... 14 U.S. Corn and Sorghum Shipments, Sales, and Inspections 15 U.S. Corn and Sorghum Exports by Destination 16 Corn and Sorghum Shipments by Other Major Exporting Countries... 18 U.S. and and Argentine Corn and Sorghum Prices 19 U.S. Barley Exports; Barley Prices 21-22 U.S. and Thai Rice Prices 22 Rice Importer Buying Activity 23 U.S. Rice Exports by Class and Destination 26 Quantity and Value of U.S. Grain and Feed Commodity Exports 28 U.S. Wheat and Corn Programs 29 2 **HIGHLIGHTS** Significant developments over the past month affecting U.S. exports; — Australia concludes long term grain agreements with Iraq and Jordan. — Poor quality Canadian wheat crop could improve high-quality U.S. wheat exports, but stiffen competition for U.S. feed grains. — Saudi Arabia is building more storage facilities for wheat and flour. — Chile announced new minimum and maximum domestic wheat prices which could spur production but discourage consumption. — Pakistan raised wheat support prices by 14 percent. — Brazil could import up to 1 million tons of corn in 1985/86. — South Africa's 1986 corn crop is being threatened by extended dry weather during the rainy season. — Argentine corn and sorghum sowing has been delayed due to heavy rains in some areas. — Portugal's increased use of non-grain feed ingredients could mean reduced imports of U.S. corn. ■Burma may have less rice to export as a result of severe flooding. — Papua New Guinea (PNG) could become a market for U.S. rice as a result of recent PNG Government action. This circular was prepared by the Grain and Feed Division, Commodity and Marketing Programs, FAS/USDA. Telephone: (202) 447-2009. 3 **WHEAT** LATEST U.S. EXPORT FORECAST, SHIPMENTS, AND SALES Export Forecast ; The 1985/86 U.S. wheat export forecast fell to 27.2 million tons, the lowest level in 10 years, mostly as a result of more aggressive competition, particularaly from the European Community. Accumulated exports and commitments through November 14 were just under 15.0 million tons as compared to almost 31.0 million tons 1 year ago. The Soviet Union, which had purchased 7.0 million tons of wheat from the United States by mid-November 1984, has thus far purchased just 150,000 tons in 1985. Shipments and Sales ; Wheat shipments in the 4-week period ending November 14, totaled 2.0 million tons, down 10 percent from last month's total, while new wheat sales of 1.6 million tons were about 16 percent below last month's sales of 1.9 million tons. Japan, Algeria, Sri Lanka, and unknown destinations were the leading buyers while Japan, Egypt, and Chile were the principal destinations. U.S. WHEAT SHIPMENTS AND SALES ANNUAL MONTHLY AVERAGES FOH MY 1982 - 19B6 (PROJ) AND MONTHLY FROM NOVEMBER 1983 - NOVEMBER 1985 KMT O.B - Q t I I I I J I 1—1 I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 L SS389 ANNUAL AVERAGES MONTHLY AVERAGES MY 18 JUNE/NAY MARKET INQ YEAH US WHEAT SHIPMENTS, SALES, AND 1NSEPCTI0NS 1/ (JUNE/KAY— MILLION TONS) Meekly and Annual Inspection Rates Million NT BU — Neek Ending November 14 0.5 17.6 Monthly Shipments Neek Ending November 21 0.5 20.2 4 Keeks Ending 1984/85 19B5/B6 Official Estimate for Current MY Aug. ?2 4.2 2.2 (Grain only) 25.6 940 Sep. 19 5.1 1.7 Implied Neekly Average 0.5 18.1 Oct. 17 4.5 2.2 Nov. 14 2.9 2.0 emulative for MY 21.6 Monthly Sales 2/ 4 Keeks Ending Aug. 22 Sep. 19 Oct. 17 Nov. 14 1984/85 5.4 4 3.3 3.1 Cumulative for BY 30.6 11.3 19B5/86 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.4 14.8 Latest Si* Keeks Meekly Average., . Marketing Year-To-Date Meekly Average Neekly Avg. Extrapolated Annually 0.5 18.1 0.5 26.7 Balance of Year to Achieve Estimate Iiplied Meekly Average 0.5 18.9 982 17.4 1/ Shi pnents and sales data froi U.S. Export Sales. Inspections data froi Federal 6rain Inspection Service. 2/ Sales tade since the beginning of the applicable marketing year, including sales for shipment in the next marketing year. 4 Sizeable purchases of U.S. wheat by Japan, Algeria, and Sri Lanka were the month's highlights for U.S. wheat exporters. In general, global import buying has been at exceptionally low levels this season. North African purchasing has been somewhat postponed because of good crops; some countries are believed to have recently delayed purchasing because they expect growing competitive pressures to lead to further decline of world wheat prices. WHEAT AND FLOUR IMPORTER BUYING ACTIVITY REPORTED BETWEEN OCTOBER 26, 1985 AND NOVEMBER 25, 1985 Dace of Quant ity Price Range 2/ Delivery Purchase Buyer Origin (tons) Grade 1/ / tup — ■» — \ ($US per con) Period 3/ 10/ 28 • • Ph il ippines If c HRS 14Z 1 AO DC. 1 Q/. If! pfB Nov/ Dec Philippines U.S. 25,000 White 158.32 C&F Dec 10/30 Japan U.S. 50,000 Dec Japan Australia 35,000 Dec Japan Canada 20,000 Dec 11/1 Ja pan U.S. 53,247 HRW, HRS Dec Japan Canada 17,000 CWRS Dec Japan Australia 35,000 ASW Dec 11/4 Korea U.S. 21,200 White, HRW, HRS 136.60-165.60 Nov/Dec 11/5 Yemen Australia 50,000 ASW 146.50 C&F Nov/Dec Yemen Australia 45,000 AH 151.50 C&F Nov/Dec 11/7 Sri Lanka U.S. 75,000 HRW 12X 138.80-141.65 Nov-Jan Sri Lanka U.S. 92,267 SRW 131.36-134.27 Dec-Feb 11/8 Pakistan U.S. 100,000 White 138.52-139.16 Dec Korea U.S. 22,000 White, HRW, HRS 138.00-167.70 Nov/Dec Japan U.S. 35,047 HRW Jan 11/12 Sri Lanka U.S. 14,561 HRW 12Z 141.09 Jan Morocco France 170,000 Wheat 106.00-109.00 C&F Nov/Dec 11/13 Japan U.S. 55,294 HRW, White Jan Japan Canada 17,000 CWRS Jan Japan Australia 15,500 SRW Jan 11/18 Turkey U.S. 25,000 HRW 100.50 Jan/Feb 11/20 Morocco Franca 100,000 Wheat 110.95-112.75 C&F Jan 11/21 Japan U.S. 91,994 WW, HRW, HRS Jan Japan Australia 16,000 HRW Jan Korea U.S. 26,000 White, ARW, HRS 138.50-169.40 Dec/Jan 11/22 Korea U.S. 16,500 White, HRW, HRS 138.40-167.50 Dec/Jan Korea Canada 30,000 Feed wneat 99.65 Dec 1/ HRW-Hard Red Winter, HRS-Hard Red Spring, SRW-Soft Red Winter, HAD-Hard Amber Durum, WW-Western White ASW-Australian Soft White, CWRS*Canadian Western Red Spring, PH- Australian Prime Hard, AH'Australian Hard 2/ FOB unless otherwise noted. 3/ FH denotes first half; LH, last half. SOURCE: Unofficial market news reports. DEVELOPMENTS AFFECTING U.S. EXPORTS Other Exporting Countries 1 Selling Activity and Competitive Practices WHEAT SHIPMENTS BY rtftJOR EXPORTING COUNTRIES RECENT MONTHS AND SEASON TOTALS FOR 1984/85-1983/86 (JULY/JUNE--I1ILLI0N TONS) Canada Australia Argentina France 2/ Total 84/85 85/86 84/85 85/86 84/85 85/86 84/85 85/86 84/85 85/86 4 Weeks Ending 1/ Aug. 22 2.3 1.2 1.0 1.1 .1 .3 1.1 0.5 4.5 3.1 Sep. 19 2.3 1.1 i.i 1.0 .1 .3 1.3 N/A 4.8 N/A Oct. 17 1.3 2.8 1.3 .9 .1 .4 1.2 N/A 3.9 N/A Nov. 16 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.1 i .3 .8 N/A 3.3 N/A Forecast for Season It 19.4 16.5 16.6 15.2 8.0 6.4 12.6 12.0 56.6 50.1 1/ Or nearest date thereto, 2/ Excludes intra-EC trade. 3/ Projection for 1985/86. t Less than 0.1 5 EC Soft Wheat and Flour Export Licenses As of Mid-November (Million Metric Tons) 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Soft Wheat 2.3 3.2 3.6 3.7 4.6 Flour 1.0 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 Total 3.3 3.7 4.3 4.7 5.9 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 Final Total 9.8 12.8 12.9 13.6 The above table illustrates the rapid pace of EC wheat and flour licenses issued so far this year, and reflects the Community's aggressive subsidized export program despite lower global import demand. Recent export subsidies have been $U.S. 55-60 per ton for soft wheat. Last year the Community exported a record 17.5 million tons to third countries (16 percent of world trade) , and is expected to export at least that quantity again this year. Exports of that magnitude in 1985/86, however, would comprise almost 20 percent of forecast world wheat and flour trade. ** Argentina : Stronger demand for high quality U.S. wheat could result from some loss in Argentine wheat production and quality due to severe flooding across much of the country. The 1985/86 (July-June) export forecast prior to the adverse wheather was 7.4 million tons, already down from exports of 8.6 million tons in 1984/85. ** European Community ; Aggressive marketing of subsidized EC wheat in China could negatively affect sales of wheat from the United States and other supplier countries. Reports indicate that France recently sold 250,000 - 600,000 tons of wheat to China at a price of $98.00 FOB, with EC exporters getting an additional subsidy of almost 6 ECUs per ton above the standard subsidy. In 1984/85 (July/June) the European Community exported just 85,000 tons of wheat to China. Sales of U.S. wheat to China ranged between 2.1 million and 8.6 million tons annually over the last 7 years. China's wheat imports have fallen sharply over the past 3 years from 13.0 million tons in 1982/83 (July/June) to an estimated 6.5 million tons in 1985/86. The United States supplied China with about 3.0 million tons of wheat in 1984/85, with Australia being the other major supplier. 6 ** Australia : Iraq could be taking less U.S. wheat as a result of a new long-term grain agreement with Australia. The agreement calls for a minimum supply and purchase of 6.0 million tons over the next 5 years, as well as provisions for Iraqi purchases of other grains such as rice. Australia is expected to supply about 35 percent of Iraq's forecast 3.0-million-ton wheat import requirement in competition with the United States, Canada, Turkey, and the European Community. Iraq has been a 700,000 - 1 million-ton market for U.S. wheat over the last 3 years, virtually all of which was sold under the GSM-102 program. **Australia: Some 1986 sales of U.S. wheat to Jordan could be displaced by stiff competition from Australia. The Australians have offered terms which include both lower prices and a lower interest rate than would be available under the U.S. GSM-102 program. In addition, the Australians have offered to take Jordanian phosphate as partial payment for wheat, an attractive proposition to the Jordanians who are short on foreign exchange. Jordan has been a dependable 100,000 - 300, 000- ton market for U.S. wheat over the past 5 years, and is expected to import almost 400,000 tons of wheat from all origins in 1985/86. Competitive Developments in Selected Foreign Markets ** Brazil : Brazil, which has in recent years annually imported 2.5 - 3.0 million tons of U.S. wheat, has indicated it will not make additional purchases of U.S. wheat until late January or February 1986. This action may not necessarily result in lost U.S. sales, but just a postponement. The suspension is the result of large domestic supplies, limited storage capacity, and the schedulted arrival of Argentine and Canadian wheat purchased under government-to-government agreements. Total Brazilian wheat imports are forecast at 3.5 million tons for 1985/86 (July/June) , down from the previous five-year average of 4.3 million tons. ** Portugal ; The United States appears likely to lose some of its large share of the Portuguese wheat market to the European Community. France is expected to supply Portugal with about 100,000 tons of wheat over the 1985/86 (July/June) year, or about 1/6 of Portugal's forecast wheat imports. Portugal has long been an important market for U.S. wheat, usually taking about 95 percent of its import requirements from the United States. The gradual deterioration in the U.S. market share of Portuguese wheat imports is expected to continue with Portugal's accession to the European Community in 1986. 7 ** Canada ; A poor quality 1985 Canadian wheat crop could improve demand for U.S. wheat exports, but result in larger exportable supplies of Canadian feed wheat. The Canadian Wheat Board has announced that only 20 percent of this year's wheat crop is No. 1 quality compared to 50 percent last year. The gains to U.S. exporters have already been felt in a sale of 75,000 tons of U.S. wheat to Norway, traditionally a market for Canadian wheat. On the other hand, any Canadian exports of feed quality wheat, will compete with U.S. feed grain exports. Recently, Korea bough 60,000 tons of feed wheat from Canada. ** Saudi Arabia : The Saudi wheat and flour import market is rapidly disappearing due to increased domestic production and growing buffer stocks. Saudi wheat imports reached their peak in 1979/80 at 1.4 million tons (550,000 tons from the United States) . They have declined steadily since then to a forecast 100,000 tons for 1985/86 (July/June) . Production in recent years has shot from 141,000 tons in 1980 to an estimated 1.7 million tons in 1985, leaving a surplus of almost 300,000 tons. To further reduce its reliance on imports, the Saudi Government is building silos which will expand storage capacity to 1.5 million tons, or over 1 year's supply at current levels of consumption. Finally, Saudi milling capacity, which is currently 4,000 tons per day, is expected to increase to 5,500 tons per day, which would eliminate the need for any flour imports. ** Canada : Shipping through the Welland Canal between Lakes Ontario and Erie resumed on November 7 after being closed down for nearly a month, and the backlog of 130 ships containing most of October's normal shipments has now been cleared. The temporary closing of the canal is not believed to have seriously affected total exports from either Canada or the United States. Nearly 50 percent of all exported Canadian grain (10 - 15 million tons annually) moves through the St. Lawrence Seaway. In October and November 1984 Canada moved nearly 3 million tons of grain through the seaway, whereas the United States only 100,000 tons. During the month the canal was closed, the Canadian Wheat Board tried to aid exporters by transporting nearly 120,000 tons of wheat by rail to eastern Canada for direct transhipment to ocean vessels. 8 Internal Price Policies Of Foreign Countries ** Chile : High government-supported wheat prices have led to increased production and declining imports, 80 - 90 percent of which have traditionally come from the United States. Chilean wheat imports have fallen from about 1.1 million tons in 1982/83 to a forecast 600,000 tons in 1985/86 while wheat production for the corresponding period has gone from nearly 600,000 tons to an estimated 1.2 million tons. From November 1, 1985 to October 31, 1986, the domestic price for wheat must range between U.S. $218 - $245/ton. A flexible system of duties and levies ensures that the price of imported wheat will fall within this band. For example, if the international price of wheat (based on the lowest international price of wheat on the shipping date) is below $218, a flexible import duty is imposed in addition to the standard 20 perenct value-added tax. If the price is above $212, no specific duty would be applied and the ad valorem duty would be reduced up to a maximum of $44.64. Flour millers attribute a recent 15 percent drop in flour sales to the high wheat prices and resulting high flour prices. Consumption of wheat in Chile has remained fairly constant at about 1.75 million tons over the last 15 years. ** Pakistan : The Government of Pakistan has raised support prices for the 1986 wheat crop by 14 percent over last year's level. The announcement is likely to increase wheat planting which began in October and is likely to continue through late November/early December. Pakistani wheat imports jumped to over 1.0 million tons in 1984/85 (July/June) and a forecast 1.7 million tons in 1985/86 from the roughly 450, 000- ton level of recent years because of a drought- reduced crop. Over the past 6 years, the United States has annually exported about 200,000 tons of wheat to Pakistan. EXPORTER SUPPORT PRICES FOR WHEAT 1984/85 1985/86 U.S.$ Local U.S.$ Local Exporter Equivalent Currency Equivalent Currency per bu per ton per bu per ton U.S. (loan) 3.30 121 121 (US$) 3.30 121 121 (US$) Argentina (reference) 2.46 89 4,800 1/ Australia (min. pay.) 2.50 92 146 (A$) n/a n/a n/a Canada (initial pay.) 3.22 119 160 (C$) 3.18 117 160 (C$) EC (intervention) 2/ 3.86 142 183 (ECU) 3.70 136 180 (ECU) (reference) 3/ 4.49 165 213 (ECU) 4.30 158 209 (ECU) 1/ In new pesos, current season prices can be adjusted when necessary because of currency fluctuations. Caution should be taken when using this price in US$ equivalent because of the volatility of the Argentine exchange rate. Current price as of May 30, 1985. 2/ Support price paid for other milling wheats; EC prices represent medium-quality wheat. 3/ Support price for bread-quality wheat. 9 HARD RED SPRING WHEAT EXPORT PRICES U.S. AND CANADIAN $/TON 190 1B0 170 160 - s 150 140 130 120 _ _L. 12Q I ' 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ' 1 ' ' 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ' 1 1 1 1 1 1 ' 1 ' ' ' ' ' ' 1 1 1 ' ' 1 1 ' 1 ' 1 1 1 ' 1 1 1 Su in IU CO "3 > O I i i \ i ID > a NOVEMBER 84 THRU NOVEMBER 85 (MID-WEEK PRICES) KFQB SULF DURING WINTER MONTHS U.S. #2 HRS FOB: LAKES* #1 CHRS 13 1/2% FOB: THUNDER BAY U.S. LOAN RATE FOB: GULF US. GRAIN COMMODITY EXPORT PRICES FOB GULF EXCEPT FOB PNW FOR WHITE WHEAT AND FOB LAKES FOR HARD RED SPRING* j i i i i & *v & & ^ ^ ^ & 4 4 YEARLY AVERAGE (JUL/JUN) NOV B4-N0V 85 MID-MONTH KFOB GULF DURING WINTER MONTHS HARD RED SPRING HARD RED WINTER WHITE SOFT RED WINTER SORGHUM CORN 10 WHEAT TRADE BY MAJOR EXPORTERS PERCENT OF TOTAL MAJOR EXPORTER TRADE ONLY JULY/JUNE YEARS YEARS U.S. CAN/AUST/ARG TOTAL EC 1/ 1973/74 63. 6 37. 1 -0.6 1974/75 59. 1 45. 1 -4.2 1975/76 54. 5 40. 0 5.5 1976/7/ 48. 5 50. 2 1.3 1977/78 *~j jc * i 48. 7 -0. 8 19/8/ 79 53. 9 39. 1 7.0 1979/80 48. 4 45 . 0 6. 6 198*..)/ 81 50. 1 37. 7 1 jC . 2 1981/82 52.8 35. 6 11.7 1982/83 45.0 41.8 X ‘_’ • Am 1983/84 41 . 6 45.8 12.6 1984/85 38.8 45.6 15.6 1985/86 48.3 18.2 1/ EC NET EXPORTS. ««CCC Credit U.S. WHEAT/FLOUR TRADE WITH SELECTED COUNTRIES UNDER CCC GUARANTEE PROGRAMS* Bangladesh Brazil Chile Colombia Ecuador W , Guateiala Haiti Iraq Jamaica Jordan Korea Pakistan Philippines Portugal Turkey Yeicen TOTAL FY 1985 1/ Guarantees Est. Quantity Approved Shipped * Million -1,000 Tons- 42.1 272.5 59.5 79.0 32.6 77.6 16.1 7.5 BB.5 4.2 19.9 108.9 40.1 43.2 97.0 10.1 998.8 280.7 1,816.7 396.7 526.7 217.3 517.3 107.3 50.0 590.0 28.0 132.7 726.0 267.3 288.0 646.7 67.3 6,658.7 1/ 21 FY 1986 2/ Announced Approved —Million Dollars— 20.0 42.0 55.0 7.5 120.0 73.0 10.0 327.5 4.4 4.4 Estisated Quantity Yet To Be Purchased 3/ 1,000 tons 133.3 2B0 366.7 50.0 770.7 486.7 66.7 2154.1 * Includes BSM-102, GSM-5, and Blended Credit, as of Noveeber 22, 1985. 1/ Wheat or feed grains 21 Registrations include reserve 3/ Based on $150 per ton 11 HARD RED WINTER WHEAT EXPORT PRICES U.S. AND ARGENTINE S/TON 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 BO \ _ ✓ V V ✓ I I I t t I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I t I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I S uj S |2 -5 3 3 i Bi NOVEMBER 64 THRU NOVEMBER 85 (MID-WEEK PRICES) U.S. #2 HRW FOB: GULF ARGENTINE FOB U.S. LOAN RATE FOB: GULF WHITE WHEAT EXPORT PRICES U.S. AND AUSTRALIAN $/TON 160 r U.S. #2 WHITE FOB: PNW 120 I 1 1 1 1 ‘ 1 1 1 ‘ 1 1 ‘ 1 ‘ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ‘ 1 1 1 1 1 ‘ 1 1 ‘ 1 i i i i i i i i t i s g s Ills \ i I g) g 1 NOVEMBER 84 THRU NOVEMBER B5 (MID-WEEK PRICES) 12 **PL-480 FY 19B6 PUBLIC LAW TITLE Hill COUNTRY AND COfiHDDITY ALLOCATIONS 1/ (1000 Tons Brain Equivalent) Country Million-Total Wheat/Flour Rice Feedgrains $790 or Less Per Capita SNP ban^i aoesn 7ft ft 7ft P ft 75 ft Bol i vi a 7ft ft 1 77 ft Eoypt 017 ft 1 ftTD ft 0 / 1 dR ft ti baivanor Ai. ft ‘to. y bnana Q ft a. U 7 ft Guinea L ft c. u 7ft ft Haiti 1 Q ft Q5 ft 7 j.y Un n n 1 1 r T ^ 1 R ft 1 JmU P7 ft inuonesi a 7 ft ft 177 ft 77 ft O j. y Kenya Liberia 1ft ft 1 V . V AT ft o-j. y 1 1 ft 1 l.U 77 ft ■i ( . y nauagascar Q ft c. y 1 A ft norocco A ft ft TV. V T57 ft Zjo. y Mozambique 10.0 25.0 10.0 23.0 Pakistan 50.0 — Fhih pomes 35.0 158.0 33.0 Seneqal c c J. J 61.0 Sierra Leone I A 4.0 4 i A 14. U T A 1 I V Somalia 20.0 T 1 A 4 / 34. U 1/ < T A i 7 A 13.0 Sri Lanka 1 L A m.U bud an Ten A i / OJD.V 1/ ""*■ — — Yemen ft 17ft 10. V Zaire 20.0 92.0 17.0 Zambia 10.0 37.0 — -- buutotai 1 OU . J T 1 57 ft Oj 1 ji.U 7/17 ft 07 ft 7/ , V Over 1790 Per Capita GNP Costa Rica 23.0 114.0 63.0 Dominican Rep. 30.0 72.0 32.0 Guatemala 14.0 63.0 •Jamaica 30.0 93.0 19.0 B5.0 Peru 20.0 100.0 Tunisia 2.5 16.0 Subtotal 119.5 458.0 51.0 148.0 Allocated 850.0 3,610.0 294.0 245.0 Unallocated Reserve 100.0 TOTAL PROGRAM 950.0 3,610.0 294.0 245.0 1/ Preliminary 21 Wheat equivalent of flour or some portion of wheat equiv. of flour. 13 U.S. WHEAT EXPORT COMMITMENTS BY CLASS TO MAJOR DESTINATIONS TOTAL IXPORTS FOR 1983/84-1984/85$ COMMITMENTS TO DATE FOR 1985/86 KITH COMPARISON TO 1984/85 (JUNE/HAY— 1,000 TONS) Destination Marketing Year Hard Red Winter Spring Soft Red All White Durui Total Exports EC-10 1983/84 1984/85 1984/85* 1985/86** 3 1,218 718 479 367 2 6 4 7 263 188 122 128 1,486 914 605 502 Other H. Europe 1983/84 1984/85 1984/85* 1985/86** 795 546 352 260 32 99 43 56 411 633 529 190 16 6 49 45 35 4 1,303 1,323 959 516 USSR 1983/84 1984/85 1984/85* 1985/86** 4,141 6,339 6,785 150 — — — 4,141 6,339 5,032 150 China 1983/84 1984/85 1984/85* 1985/86** 1,368 105 105 -- 1,549 2,693 3,081 581 2,917 2,798 3,186 581 Japan 1983/84 1984/85 1984/85* 1985/86** 1,287 1,367 802 744 1,W0 1,067 664 591 1,126 1,013 702 602 12 15 25 3,435 3,462 2,168 1,962 Tainan 1983/84 1984/85 1984/85* 1985/86** 245 299 282 310 185 211 191 214 — 130 145 129 143 560 655 602 667 Rep. of Korea 1983/84 1984/85 1984/85* 1985/86** 649 674 403 322 221 231 138 129 2 3 1,179 1,103 699 584 2,051 2,008 1,240 1,038 Other Asia, Middle East, and Oceania 1983/84 1984/85 1984/85* 1985/86** 2,288 2,227 1,756 979 1,232 1,002 590 409 258 178 171 138 1,222 1,502 1,056 799 21 *"* ™ 5,021 4,909 3,573 2,325 Egypt 1983/B4 1984/85 1984/85* 1985/86** 30 . — 539 429 hi n 212 712 807 1,205 /in 662 1,346 1,664 874 712 Nigeria 1983/84 1984/85 1984/85* 1985/86** 1,278 1,324 ' 585 712 265 198 164 35 88 91 73 70 1,631 1,613 822 817 Other Africa 1983/84 1984/85 1984/85* 1985/86** 471 418 197 657 7 39 29 64 1,876 2,034 1,887 577 45 35 MA 28 844 803 573 165 3,243 3,329 2,714 1,463' Brazil 1983/84 1984/85 1984/85* 1985/86** 2,181 3,111 2,793 721 66 67 66 67 67 2,313 3,245 2,860 721 Other N. Heiis. 1983/84 1984/85 1984/85* 19B5/86** 2,223 2,061 1,522 1,407 1,477 1,290 997 808 514 503 350 500 48 159 140 2 296 293 211 159 4,558 4,306 3,220 2,876 Total 1/ 1983/84 1984/85 19B4/B5* 1985/86** 17,128 18,460 16,041 6,423 5,647 4,862 3,386 2,861 ** 5,593 6,577 6,431 2,896 5,541 5,234 3,442 2,151 1,556 1,458 1,125 749 35,465 36,591 30,425 17,976 MY Projection 2/ 13,336 4,218 4,355 4,082 1,225 27,216 1/ Discrepancies due to rounding and sales to unknown destination. 21 Projection for 1984/85, including flour and products * Sales plus accumulated exports as of Noveiber 22, 1984, excluding sales for next larktting year, ** Sales plus accumulated exports as of Noveiber 20, 1985, excluding sales for next ■arketin} year, Source: U.S. Export Sales Report 14 **CORN AND SORGHUM** LATEST U.S. EXPORT FORECAST, SHIPMENTS, AND SALES Export Forecast : The 1985/86 U.S. coarse grain export forecast declined this month as a result of lower barley export prospects in light of intensified competition from the EC and Australia. The United States can also expect increased competition from Canadian and EC feed wheat, as well as increased use of non-grain feed ingredients in key European and Far Eastern markets. Shipments and Sales : Corn shipments during the 4-week period ending November 14 were 3.8 million tons, an increase of 65 percent over last month's total , while new corn sales were almost 4.3 million tons, well above last month's total of 2.6 million tons. Japan, unknown destinations, the Soviet Union, and Brazil were the major buyers, while Japan, the Soviet Union, and Egypt were the primary destinations. Sorghum shipments of 441,000 tons were 47 percent above last month's total, while sales of 381,000 tons also showed an increase over last month's level. Japan and Israel were the principal buyers. US CORN AND SGR6HUM SHIPMENTS, SALES AND INSPECTIONS !/ (QCTOBER/SEPTEKBER — MILLION TONS! Monthly Bhipaents heekly and Annual Inspection Rates CORN SORGHUM CORN SORGHUM 4 Keeks ENDING 83/84 84/85 83/84 84/85 NT BU HT BU Aug. 22 3.7 2.7 .5 .7 1.3 52.0 0.09 3.8 Sep. 1? 2.4 1.8 .4 .3 1.6 62.5 0.10 4.0 TOTAL FOR MY 43.6 43.5 5.6 6.2 Official Estiiate for Current MY 4 Weeks ENDING 84/85 85/86 84/85 85/86 40.8 0.8 1608 30.9 6.99 0.13 275 5.3 Oct. 18 1.7 2.3 .7 .4 Nov. 14 5.2 3.8 .7 .4 TOTAL FOR MY 7.0 5.4 1.3 .9 Monthly Sales Latest Six Weeks 0.9 CORN SORGHUM 35.4 0.12 4.8 4 Weeks ENDING 83/84 84/85 B3/84 84/85 Aug. 22 3,7 1.9 .5 .3 Marketing Year-To-Date Sep. 19 3.5 2.6 .5 .3 1.1 42.3 0.14 5.5 TOTAL FOR MY 48.6 47.3 6.8 7.2 Weekly Avg. Extrapolated Annually. .55.9 2199 9.75 384 Balance of Year to Achieve Estiiate 0.7 29.3 0.13 5.3 4 Weeks ENDIN6 84/85 85/86 84/85 B5/86 Oct. 17 3.6 2.6 .4 .3 Nov. 14 2.5 4.3 .7 .4 TOTAL FOR MY 21.3 15.0 2.6 1.7 1/ Ship*ents and sales data fro* U.S. Export Sales. Inspections data fro« Federal Grain Inspection Service. 21 Sales aade since the beginning of the applicable sarketing year, including sales for shipsent in tne nest ■arketing year. Source: Export Sales; FSIS 15 IMPORTER BUYING ACTIVITY The major corn buyers over the 4-week period ending November 14 were the Soviet Union (825,000 tons) , Japan (1,362,000 tons), and unknown destinations (920,000 tons). The key purchaser in the sorghum market over this same period was Japan (375,000 tons) . U.S. Market Opportunities : * *Brazil : Brazil has purchased 400,000 tons of U.S. corn, and may take up to 1 million tons in 1985/86 (October-September) as part of an effort to reduce speculation and domestic price inflation. The effort could also include requesting the Government of Argentina to substitute corn for wheat under their grain agreement. At present, however, the Brazilians are still expected to take their entire corn import needs for 1985/86 from the United States. Brazil has historically been a sporadic corn trader, importing nearly 2 million tons in some years and exporting over 1 million tons in others. This year Brazil was expected to import just 400,000 tons. Also, reports of drought in several important corn-growing regions has interfered with corn sowing and will cause the Brazilian government to import corn before late January. U.S. CORN AND SORGHUH EXPORTS BY DESTINATION (OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER--! ,000 TONS) Destination 1982/83 — CORN — EC Other W. Europe Eastern Europe USSR China Japan Taiwan Rep. of Korea Egypt Canada Hex i co Venezuela Others Total — SORGHUM — Spain Other W. Europe (excl. Spain) Japan Israel Mexico Venezuela Others Total 4,033 5,388 1,470 3,200 2,161 13,180 3,000 3,908 1,516 '750 4,091 892 3,938 105 251 741 341 3,260 243 462 "5; 1984/85 1985/86 1983/84 Coseitted Cosei tted Actual as of as of Exports 11/22/84 1/ 11/14/85/ 3,677 4,473 727 6,500 18 13,781 2,676 2,972 1,303 283 2,808 1,140 6,992 465 136 1,505 574 2,758 206 582 "67226" 2,268 3,969 693 15,750 0 11,095 3,134 87 1,352 316 1,297 638 5,361 45 79 2,726 587 1,958 1,093 506 390 1,162 426 8,389 0 5,032 1,760 260 343 27 650 219 3,232 45 36 1,421 233 372 185 394 197 915 448 3,481 0 4,534 1,458 580 544 7 636 0 2,208 "477527 477350 457955 21789(5" "I57DW "67996" ""27686' 0 27 1,258 163 13 95 163 17692" 1/ Accuiulated n shipients r and sales^excludinq sales for next aarketinq year. Source: urs. Bureau of Census and U.S. Export Sales Report. 16 U.S. CORN SHIPMENTS AND SALES ANNUAL MONTHLY AVERAGES FOR FY 1982 - 19B6 (PROJ) AND MONTHLY FROM NOVEMBER 1983 - NOVEMBER 1985 RECENT CORN AND SORGHUM IMPORTER BUYING ACTIVITY REPORTED BETWEEN OCTOBER 26, AND NOVEMBER 25, 1985 Date of Quantity Price Range 2/ Delivery Purchase Buyer Origin ( tons ) Grade 1/ ($US per ton) Period 3/ 10/30 Japan U.S. 103,632 YC 1985/86 11/5 Korea U.S. 50,000 #3 YC 108.46 Nov 11/6 Taiwan U.S. 281,000 #2 YC 121.74-127.95 C&F Nov/Feb 11/8 Korea Thailand 20,000 Corn 104.95 C&F Dec Brazil U.S. 400,000 #2 YC Nov/ Jan 11/14 Japan U.S. 103,632 Corn 1985/86 11/15 Peru U.S. 40,000 YC Nov/Dec Israel U.S. 25,000 #2 YC Jan 11/22 Korea U.S. 50,000 #3 YC 111.55 Dec Taiwan U.S. 50,000 #2 YC 127.45 C&F Dec 17 YC-#3 Yellow Corn unless otherwise stated, and YS"Yellow Sorghum 2/ FOB unless otherwise noted. 3/ FH denotes first half; LH, last half. SOURCE: Unofficial market news reports. 17 Other Exporting Countries' Selling Activity and Competitive Practices CORN AND SORGHUM SHIPMENTS BY MAJOR EXPORTING COUNTRIES RECENT MONTHS AND SEASON TOTALS FOR 1984/85-1985/86 (OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER— MILLION TONS) SORGHUM CORN Argent ina Argentina Thailand TOTAL 4 Heeks Ending 1/ Aug. 22 Sep. 19 TOTAL FOR SEASON 2/ 83/84 84/85 83/84 84/85 83/84 84/85 83/84 84/85 .2 .2 4.8 .3 .1 3.4 .5 .B .3 .2 5.9 7.1 .3 .4 3.0 .2 .2 2.8 1.0 1.1 .9 .5 13.7 13.3 4 Weeks Ending !/ Oct. 17 Nov. 20 84/85 65/86 84/85 85/86 84/85 85/86 83/84 84/85 .2 # 1 . i i i * .3 .2 .1 .1 .6 .5 .3 .3 1.1 .6 .6 .5 Cusulative in Marketing Year TOTAL FOR SEASON 2/ n . i. 3.4 ? 2.3 .4 .3 7.1 9.4 1.1 2.9 .3 3.6 1.7 1.1 13.4 15.3 N/A = Not Available 1/ Or nearest date thereto. 2/ Projection for 1984/85. f Less than 100,000 tons. ** South Africa : Larger exports of U.S. corn to the Far East could result from a continuation of dry conditions in the Maize Triangle of South Africa. The beneficial rains in October have been virtually negated by subsequent high temperatures and dryness. Fields planted after the optimal planting period risk the affects of typically drier, warmer weather in Aprii and May when the crop is in the moisture- sensitive , grain-filling period of development. Drought affected crops in both 1984 and 1985 and caused this traditionally major corn exporter to be a net corn importer in each of those years. South Africa had been expected to resume its net exporting position this year and is still forecast to export 900,000 tons in October-September 1985/86 year, primarily to Japan and Taiwan. ** Argentina ; Heavy rains have delayed the planting of Argentina's 1986 corn and sorghum crops, possibly decreasing exportable supplies and reducing competition for U.S. feed grains. Though sorghum can be planted through mid-December without much risk to the crop, the planting window for corn is virtually closed. Farmers hoping to plant corn may have to switch to oilseeds instead. Argentina is currently forecast to export 9.4 million tons of corn and 2.3 million tons of sorghum in 1985/86 (Oct/Sep) as compared to 7.1 and 3.4 million tons the previous year. 18 SORGHUM EXPORT PRICES U.S. AND ARGENTINE l/TON i i i i i ■ i i i i i i i i t i i i t i i i i i i i i i i I i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i t S g S gill % i | ft 6 1 1 * NOVEMBER 84 THRU NOVEMBER B5 (MID-WEEK PRICES) CORN EXPORT PRICES U.S. AND ARGENTINE $/TON 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 US #2 YELLOW FOB: GULF ARGENTINE FOB U.S. LOAN RATE F08: 6ULF i i i i i i i i i i i i i i t i i i i i i i t i i > i i i i i i i t i i i i i i i i i t i i i i i i i i i i CD o 3 2T “3 NOVEMBER 84 THRU NOVEMBER 85 (MID-WEEK PRICES) * g 5 19 ** Thai land : Aggressive corn exports by Thailand in the Middle East could negatively affect U.S. corn exports in that growing market. In recent weeks Thailand has exported 78 , 000 tons of corn to the Middle East, including 60 , 000 tons to Syria which bought no corn from Thailand last year, and 11,000 tons to Libya which is a new market for Thailand. In light of its bumper corn production of 5.2 million tons in 1985/86, and exportable supplies of 3.6 million tons, it appears that Thailand is attempting to expand corn exports outside of its traditional Asian markets. OTHER DEVELOPMENTS AFFECTING U.S. EXPORTS Competitive Developments in Selected Foreign Markets **Kenya: Kenya may have an exportable corn surplus of 200,000 tons for 1985/86 (October-September) in contrast to last year’s imports of 550,000 tons, over half from the United States. Any exportable supplies this year are likely to be shipped to neighboring countries still suffering from drought-reduced harvests. Though Kenya has traditionally been both an importer and exporter of corn, that country has averaged annual imports of 300,000 tons over the last 6 years. Last year was the first since 1965/66 that the United States exported more than 100,000 tons of corn to Kenya, most of which was sent under the PL-480 program in response to the 1984 drought. ** Venezuela : Venezuelan imports of U.S. corn in 1985/86 are likely to be significantly lower than last year’s level of 650,000 tons because of a projected record harvest. If the current crop estimates are realized, Venezuela may end up with an exportable surplus of a several hundred thousand tons. Indications are that Venezuela would try to market any surplus corn to neighboring countries in the form of pre-cooked maize flour. Venezuela has traditionally been an important market for U.S. corn, taking an average over 800,000 tons over the past 5 years. Venzuela is currently forecast to import 800,000 tons of corn from all origins in 1985/86 (Oct/Sep) . ** Spain : Exports of U.S. feed grains could rise if Spain curtails its subsidized barley export program. The drought across most of southern Europe has damaged Spanish forage crops, leading to higher domestic barley prices and stronger internal demand for barley. This substitution of barley for forage in feed rations could reduce Spain’s exportable supplies of barley. Spain exported a record 850,000 tons of barley between July and September, and had been planning to export an additional 1 million tons during the local July-June 1985/86 marketing year. This year is the first since 1977/78 that Spain has exported over 100,000 tons of barley. 20 ** Portugal : Imports of U.S. corn in October- September 1985/86 are expected to fall below last year’s levels because of higher utilization of non-grain feed ingredients (NGFIs) in feed rations, as well as stronger competition from Canada, Argentina, Portugal, and France. The price that feed compounders must pay for corn has tripled” since 1982, and has made it economical for them to import duty-free substitutes such as manioc and corn gluten feed (OGF) . Vitually all of Portugal’s OGF imports are expected to come from the United States. Imports of manioc and CGF are expected to reach 350,000 tons and 100,000 tons respectively, while imports of corn are expected to continue falling in 1985/86 to 1.2 million tons from the 2.5-million-ton levels of the early 1980s. Vfliile this downward trend in Portuguese corn imports is expected to continue over the near term, it could be off-set somewhat by Portugal’s rapidly expanding poultry industry. Only very small amounts of manioc and barley can be mixed into poultry feed rations, which should help the United States maintain an important share of the Portuguese corn-import market. The United States has traditionally supplied nearly all of Portugal’s corn import requirements. **BARLEY, OATS, AND RYE** U.S. Exports June/May — 1,000 Tons Grain 1983/84 1984/85 1/ 1985/86 2/ Barley 1,991 1,676 1,306 Oats 39 15 30 Rye 25 10 25 1/ Estimated 2/ Projected Other Countries Selling Activity and Competitive Practices U.S. BARLEY EXPORTS BY DESTINATION (JUNE/HAY-1,000 TONS) 1984/85 1985/86 Coisitted Coaiitted Total as of as of Destination 1982/83 1983/84 Exports 11/22/84 1/ 11/14/85/1/ EC 122 360 105 110 Other W. Europe 226 441 353 357 i * Eastern Europe 126 60 Taiwan 146 223 259 259 100 Japan 119 372 314 314 123 Others 317 509 514 470 91 TOTAL 930 2,031 1,545 1,510 375 1/ Accusulated shipients and sales excluding sales for next sarketing year. SOURCE: U.S. Census for . 1982/83-1983/84 and U.S. Export Sales for 1984/85-1985/86. 21 U.S. FEED BARLEY PRICES INTERIOR AND EXPORT POSITIONS »’\ #2 FEED, FOB PNM i i i i i i i i i i i i i i » » • ■ &**ff*$irjft9f$ $$$$ OCT 83 TO OCT 85 MID-MONTH NOV MID-WEEK PRICES Other Countries Selling Activity and Competitive Practices BARLEY SHIPMENTS SY MAJOR EXPORTING COUNTRIES RECENT BONTHS AND SEASON TOTALS FOR 1984/85-1985/86 (OCTOBER/SEPTEHBER–HILLION TONS) U.S. CANADA FRANCE 2/ U.K. 2/ TOTAL 4 Weeks Ending 1 83/84 84/S5 83/84 84/85 83/84 84/85 B3/84 84/85 83/84 84/85 August 22 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.8 0.4 Septesber 19 0.3 t 0.2 0.4 0.3 t 0.2 0.1 1 0.6 Total For Season 3/ 2.1 1.3 4.2 2.5 1.1 2.1 1.4 2.3 8.8 8.4 4 Weeks Ending 1 84/85 85/86 84/B5 S5/B6 84/85 85/86 84/85 85/86 84/85 B5/86 October 17 t 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.B 0.7 Noveeber 16 0.4 t 0.4 0.2 0.2 N/A Cut. Since Oct 1 t 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.3 0.9 Total For Season 1.3 0.8 2.5 4.0 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.0 8.2 8.8 1/ Or closest date thereto 2/ Excludes intra-EC trade emulative reflects available data. 3/ Projection for 1985/86 N/A Not Available t Less than 50,000 tons 22 ***TAPIOCA*** ** Thailand : The Thai Government may try to raise to 6.0 million tons, the amount of tapioca it ships to the EC under the Voluntary Restraint Agreement (VRA) it has with the European Community. This would increase exportable availabilities of EC feed grains and reduce the need for imported corn. Thailand currently has large tapioca surpluses which it is under pressure to export. **RICE** LATEST U.S. EXPORT FORECAST, SHIPMENTS, AND SALES 1/ Export Forecast : The U.S. export estimate for calendar year 1985 and the 1986 forecast remain at 1.9 and 1.8 million tons respectively. With no prospect of an expansion in world trade in the coming year and little hope of any strenghening of world prices, the outlook for U.S. exports remains poor. Shipments and Sales : U.S. rice exports during the 4-week period ending November 14 totaled 143,000 tons, down 25 percent from last month’s shipments of 191,700 tons. Major destinations included Iraq and Senegal. Cumulative shipments for the 1985/86 marketing year through November 14 totaled 627,500 tons, or just 6 percent below last year’s level at this time. Export commitments for 1985/86 delivery now total 887,000 tons, approximately 13 percent below registrations of 1 year ago. 1/ Shipments and sales are on a product basis. Weekly U.S. Rice Exports (Metric Tons) Week Ending Actual 4 -Week Moving Avg. Oct 24 32,800 45,450 Nov 31 43,500 44,775 Nov 7 46,500 45,850 Nov 14 20,400 35,800 RICE PRICES US AND THAI (CSF ROTTERDAM) AND US FARM •/TON US #2, 41 BROKEN THAI 1001. BRADE B US FARM8ATE, R0U6H OCT 83 TO OCT 89 MID-MONTH NOV MID-MEEK PRICES 23 U.S. Market Opportunity ** Papua New Guinea : Papua New Guinea (PNG) has become a potential market for U.S. rice as a result of recent action by the PNG Government. Papua New Guinea rice imports, which are primarily short grain and could total just over 100,000 tons in 1985, have traditionally come from Australia. However, since May 1, 1985, rice imports from other sources have been permitted, provided that they are free of trogoderma granarium pest, or have been fumigated prior to shipment. The United States and Australia are officially free of this pest, and are therefore excused from those fumigation requirements. IMPORTER BUYING ACTIVITY. ** China : The worst attack of pests and diseases on China’s rice crop in a decade may mean that the country has less rice available for export in CY 1985. Close to 1 million tons of rice have reportedly been destroyed by the pestilence. China is expected to export 1 million tons of rice in CY 1985 and 900,000 tons in 1986. OTHER DEVELOPMENTS AFFECTING U.S. EXPORTS The prices posted by Thailand’s Board of Trade in Bangkok remained unchanged again this month for all grades. Actual export prices for 100 percent B and parboiled 5 percent eased to $U.S. 199 and $173-174, down $1 and $1-2, respectively. In Rotterdam, the prices for U.S. #2/4 percent long grain fell to $470 per ton C&F, down $5 from from last month. By comparison, Thai 100 percent B was offered at $245 per ton, down sharply from $260 C&F in October. Thai exports rose by 6 percent from the previous 4-week period to 284,330. The CY 1985 export estimate for Thailand was lowered to 4.1 million tons, about 400,000 tons below CY 1984 exports. As of November 17, cumulative 1985 exports were 3.7 million tons, as compared to 4.0 million tons at the same time a year ago. Outstanding export commitments for 1985 as of November 20 were estimated at 4.146 million tons, compared with 4.535 million tons registered by the same date last year. 24 Weekly Thai Rice Exports (Metric Tons) Week Ending Actual 4 -Week Moving Avg. Oct 26 59,391 66,741 Nov 2 61,514 62,551 Nov 9 87,584 65,717 Nov 16 75,841 71,082 ** Iraq : A long-term grain agreement between Iraq and Australia may mean tougher competition for U.S. rice in that important market. Though the agreement primarily involves wheat, other provisions call for Australia to supply Iraq with other grains. This has already resulted in a rice sale to Iraq for the first time in years. In recent years the United States has usually supplied 80 to 90 percent of Iraq’s rice imports. Iraq is forecast to import about 500,000 tons of rice in CY 1985 and 550,000 tons in 1986. ** Thailand ; In an apparent effort to maintain high-quality rice prices, the Government of Thailand decided to barter Thai rice for Iranian oil. Thailand then restricted rice sales to Iraq, Malaysia, and Singapore (all high-quality markets) to the levels called for under government-to- government agreements in order to ensure adequate supplies for Iran. **Burma: Burma may have fewer and lower quality exportable supplies of rice because of unusual, heavy rains which have reportedly destroyed as much as 10 percent of the crop. Indications are

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